THE IRAN DEAL: NOT A NUKE BUT A FLUKE


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THE IRAN DEAL: NOT A NUKE BUT A FLUKE


By most accounts, preventing a country –especially in the volatile Middle East- from obtaining a nuclear weapon, would be considered a masterstroke. Whilst Iran views the deal to be a victory for Tehran, other Middle Eastern countries are not going to light fireworks any time soon. Before ink had barely dried on the deal, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt voiced major concerns about the feasibility and effectiveness of this deal.

And not without reason: Last week, The Associated Press reported that Parchin, the very same Iranian military site that has previously been linked to high-explosive work related to the development of nuclear weapons, will be subject to inspection – by the Iranians themselves. As part of a secret side agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran will provide environmental samples, photographs and videos of the site, “using Iranian authenticated equipment.” The Director General of the IAEA will be permitted to visit the site as a courtesy by Iran… just like erratic drivers could administer their own breathalyzer tests and professional athletes could test themselves for performance-enhancing drugs.

The truth of the matter is that the more information comes to light about President Obama’s deal with Iran, the more evident it becomes that Iran has engineered a kind of rehabilitation into the international community without being asked to compromise on its image. The regime is left intact and it even perceives itself strengthened by the deal. The ideology of Iran’s rulers remains imperforate and unaffected. Indeed, as soon as the deal was made publicly known, Khamenei reaffirmed, with a Mephistophelean grin, his everlasting disdain for the West in general and for the U.S. and Israel in particular.

Ever since the Arab Spring upheaval, the Middle East has been in a state of flux. Challenges to authoritarian regimes in the region have produced political and socio-economic vacuums, which have been greatly exploited by Sunni extremist groups in pursuit of their jihadist ideology. Few would have predicted at the beginning of the Arab Spring that Iran would gain from it, since it was marginalized and heavily crippled by sanctions. Nonetheless, Iran has been cleverly expanding its influence in almost every corner of the region, from Sanaa to Damascus, taking advantage of emerging ungoverned spaces and it has managed to rejuvenate its foothold in the region. Now, with the easing of restrictions on financial transactions and the lifting of sanctions, Tehran will be given free rein to flex its military muscle. That will mean more funds - and more guns - for the proxy armies it funds around the Middle East, like the Shia militias of Iraq, and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, which is backing Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The conflicts raging around the Middle East are part of an escalating confrontation between followers of the two main traditions in the Islamic world - Sunni and Shia. As many Sunni Arab states remain either in flames or preoccupied by their internal security issues, Iran has the ability to act as the champion and defender of Shia communities wherever they are found, while the Sunni kingdoms of the Gulf - led by Saudi Arabia- will seek to ensure that they can match any nuclear capabilities Iran is now allowed to maintain as part of its nuclear deal with world powers.

  Inevitably, the deal will set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And although Israel fears that Iran will use its extra financial resources to buy more sophisticated weapons for Hezbollah to aim at Israeli cities, China and Russia, on the other hand, are greedily eyeing potential business deals with Iran (exporting weapons, for instance). The Iranians have been sagacious enough to exploit those differences from all parts.


 One thing is certain: this agreement between Iran and the international community has repercussions that extend well beyond Iran’s nuclear program and could herald a fundamental change in the balance of power in the Middle East.

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