YOU ASKED : WHY DON'T WE JUST DESTROY ISIS?

Photo Credit : AFP

                                     

Well, there is no doubt that just about everyone agrees that the world would be a better place without this Orc-like swarm of black-flagged militants, a.k.a. ISIS, ISIL or simply the Islamic State, taken out of some kind of JRR Tolkien’s epic, high-fantasy novel. You all know about them, right? The execrable Muslim extremists affiliated with Al Qaeda until recently, when Al-Qaeda decided they were too extreme for their taste and cut off ties with them. You know you are too extreme when Al- Qaeda says you are too extreme. And while everyone agrees that this vicious, brutal and fundamentally abhorrent militant group must be eliminated, opinions vary widely on how this should be achieved.

And don't assume they are fighting with sticks and rocks out there. These aren't some “quickly-rallied Ewoks” fighting the Empire. They are a legitimate rebel force, with a highly sophisticated social media outreach, well-armed with all the second hand, black-market firepower their net-worth can provide and have managed to seize huge areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq, formally declaring the whole thing “a caliphate”.

 BUT…“IT’ S COMPLICATED”, AS ALWAYS

Well…this being the Middle East, it’s always complicated, for a variety of reasons. Have you ever noticed that?  Things are never quite what they seem. Some spiteful people even suggest that all parties involved are less interested in defeating ISIS than in achieving their own regional goals, and that they are only pretending to be concerned about wiping out the group. Wicked calumniations, since everyone involved in the region is known to be sincere, albeit in radically different ways.

Let’s start with Saudi Arabia, the beloved homeland of Osama Bin Laden…and the largest oil-producing country in the world. It’s no secret that Shiite-majority Iran and Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia are locked in a strategic contest for influence across the Middle East. It is also safe to say that Saudi Arabia views Iran’s hegemonic ambitions as a greater concern than perhaps the Islamic State.

The Kingdom’s view of self-preservation (both toward the Islamic State and the menacing prospect of a nuclear Iran) pushes it to adopt a risk management strategy, i.e. trying to balance the threat of the head-chopping jihadists, while also attempting to deliver a strategic setback to Iran by overthrowing the regime in Syria. (Iran and Syria are close strategic allies, and Iran has provided significant logistical, technical and financial support in an effort to keep President Bashar al-Assad – a member of the Shiite Alawite sect- in power). And let’s not forget the civil war in Yemen, which is now a proxy battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. (Saudi Arabia is leading a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, a Shiite rebel group allied with Iran). Well, we could sum up in one word Saudi Arabia’s major concern: Iran. ISIS, the bloodthirsty Jihadists can wait for the time being.

And then there is Turkey: Since ISIS burst into prominence and wreaked havoc on parts of Iraq and Syria, Turkey practically stood idly by…well, that’s an understatement since it is common knowledge that Turkey has been allowing ISIS convoys to pass through their territory, they have been buying and subsequently selling oil from the Syrian and Iraqi oil fields that ISIS had seized and they have been waving indifferently at all the raw ISIS recruits pouring in from the West. The Turkish government seems to be heeding the old adage, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”. After all, ISIS is fighting the Syrian regime and Turkey also wants to see Assad gone- ISIS can be dealt with after he is gone.

 However, Turkey’s all time classic “love to hate” group is…the Kurds. Those independent-minded Kurds, with their seasoned fighting force, the Peshmerga. Admittedly, Kurdish factions have been the most effective fighters against ISIS. But the truth is that the Kurds are a loathed minority that live in a largely imaginary region they call Kurdistan, made up of small parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Until the collapse of Iraq and Syria, there weren’t any realistic chances of there ever being a real Kurdistan. But now the Kurds see their chance; and Turkey, too. So, Turkey has quietly thrown its lot in with ISIS, while -at the same time- putting pressure on its western allies toward creating a “safe zone’ in Syria.

And Iran? The Iranian government is Shia and it has close ties to Iraq (since the American invasion, Iraq has also been dominated by Shiite tribes). Much like in Syria, Iran doesn't want Sunni Islamist rebels to topple a friendly Shia government. So in both countries, Iran has gone to war. The problem here is that Iran’s intervention is gradually legitimizing ISIS’s propaganda line that this isn’t a conflict between the central Iraqi government and Islamist rebels, but rather a war between Sunnis and Shias; this bolsters ISIS claims that it is actually defending Sunnis against Shia aggression.

 What about the US? In an effort to promote a “peaceful” approach and to repair the tarnished image of the United States as an aggressive, bullying and warmongering superpower, U.S. President Barack Obama’s foreign policy has the world thoroughly confused… to say the least, practically because promoting peace is not feasible for the US president due to the nature of the system, where the first duty is to lead the country, not champion peace.

 So, President Barack Obama hopes to defeat ISIS by not appearing to be the force defeating ISIS. That is relatively difficult, particularly when your air force is the one carrying out most operations against ISIS targets. But fear not, Obama knows what he’s doing: he is supporting the Kurdish factions while also supporting Turkey, which is fighting the Kurds. At the same time, he is providing military assistance to the Saudi intervention in Yemen, which upsets Iran, the same country that the  U.S. forces are collaborating with, in Iraq against ISIS. Following the same ingenious strategy, he authorizes US airstrikes against the Assad regime in Syria, vastly infuriating Iran, which he then assuages by signing the nuclear deal; that inevitably creates problems with America’s traditional ally, Israel, which quickly drowns its sorrows in shipments of advanced weapons, sent by the U.S. as a conciliatory gesture.

Last but not least, the Kurds: Poor Kurds, they naively believe that the best way to defeat ISIS is to fight it. What a mundane way of thinking!